The Indian monsoon is expected to be normal this year, private weather analysis website Skymet Weather forecasted today, on December 21.
“This could be one of the ‘normal’ monsoon years making a robust start and finishing around the midway mark of the normal range, the range of normal rainfall is 96-104% of LPA [ long period average] (880.6mm),” the portal stated in its official press release.
“Monsoon has large inter-annual fluctuations in its arrival, intensity, duration, and withdrawal. It is rather early to decode all these aspects at this stage. However, there are precursors to get an early glimpse and gauge its health during the four-month-long season,” it added.
It also mentioned that the chances of La Nina, a weather phenomenon which causes colder temperatures are statistically ruled out as the phenomenon has been having an influence on the monsoon for the last two years.
“After observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 & 2021, the chances of yet another episode is ruled out, statistically. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall,” GP Sharma, President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather was quoted in the statement.
La Niña has the capacity to alter direction as well as velocity of the trade winds, which trigger the winter season in India.
La Niña involves cooling of the sea surface temperatures over the east and central Pacific ocean. It affects India by drawing in the wind blast from the northern regions of Asia, particularly Siberia. The north to south movement of the winds from Siberia towards the equator hits India intermittently and results in cold waves.
